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Will SpaceX Kill the Market?
What a week! Nvidia (NVDA) closed out a whopper of an earnings season, SpaceX is coming public, and the bulls kept us within striking distance of all-time highs. So I’ll ask a dangerous question. Will SpaceX Kill the Market? Elon Musk’s SpaceX dropped its IPO filing this week, revealing billions in losses and a sky-high valuation. And there’s other issues, like index companies changing the rules to get SpaceX into mainstays like the S&P 500, and Elon sucking up the voting power for himself. Does anyone care? It’s tricky to say. We surveyed the T3 Live community this week and asked “Do you want to buy SpaceX when it comes public?” 39.7% said yes, and 34.4% said maybe. And at the start of the year, we asked our audience “Which IPO are you most excited for?” 64.1% said SpaceX 28.2% said OpenAI 3.8% said Anthropic Given what looks like red hot retail interest and Elon’s games with the index providers, I will do my best to get some SpaceX shares before the IPO. Because it looks like the game may be rigged for the stock to pop. No guarantees because it’s common for high-profile IPOs (like recent new issue Cerebras) to sell off after hot debuts. News reports indicate that OpenAI and Anthropic will also come public this year. But there is a danger here – that a surge in new issues could contribute to a market top. SEC data shows that market tops coincide with strong IPO years like 2000, 2007, 2014, and 2021. And we are looking at three generational IPOs coming public in 2026. I’m a little scared myself, though I am trying to scoop up some SpaceX shares myself. What can I say? I love me some Elon Musk drama, which is why I’m long Tesla (TSLA). The Mag 7 Mixup Is Fascinating Mag 7 earnings are amazing. The stocks are another story. FactSet just dropped a new set of Q1 earnings season numbers and they point to Mag 7 dominance. All Mag 7 names beat earnings expectations, with EPS growing by 63.2%. For the other 493 S&P 500 companies, earnings grew by 17.4%, which was impressive by itself. However, 2026 has been a mixed bag for the actual Mag 7 Stocks. 3 of them are down YTD, and the average return is +6.5% vs. +17.5% for QQQ. The discrepancy comes in semiconductors. Nvidia is the only Mag 7 semiconductor stock in a year with SMH up 61%: Nvidia’s Selloff Was Normal On Wednesday, Nvidia reported its 14th straight earnings beat. And the stock fell -1.8% Is this unusual? NOPE. That the 4th straight time Nvidia sold off the day after earnings, despite another solid beat. Here are Nvidia’s prior 8 post-earning reactions: 4Q 2026: -5.5% 3Q 2026: -3.2% 2Q 2026: -0.8% 1Q 2026: +3.3% 4Q 2025: -8.5% 3Q 2025: +0.5% 2Q 2025: -6.4% 1Q 2025: +9.3% Source: Koyfin The stock is a toss-up after earnings. And as you can see, it’s been more down than up. This makes sense, because the stock is widely followed and loved. And Q1 was jam packed full of huge earnings beats from the AI complex. Who was shocked that Nvidia’s still doing well? There Is a Bear Market in Euphoria The latest AAII Sentiment shows that just 31.7% of investors are bullish. This is below the long-term 37.5% average, despite the $SPX remaining in striking distance of the 7517.12 all-time high set last week. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed index is at 61, indicating modest greed: This is a positive for the market because it shows a lack of euphoria. You’d think investors would be more bullish because of a mild easing of Middle East tensions and crude oil slipping. But perhaps the crowd is more concerned about inflation and the Fed. Either way, market tops are often (but not always) market by overly bullish sentiment. We are not even in the neighborhood of bullish. Speaking of the Fed… Rate Hikes En Route? While President Trump has been adamant we need lower interest rates, the market is pricing in higher rates following a series of hot inflation readings. The CME’s FedWatch Tool now shows the market is pricing in a 0% chance of lower rates at year-end: Plus: 29.9% chance of rates staying the same 70.1% chance of rates going up And that 70.1% is divided up as follows. 42.4% chance of 25 bps in hikes 22.1% chance of 50 bps in hikes 5.2% chance of 75 bps in hikes 0.5% chance of 100 bps in hikes So why is the market so strong? Shouldn’t the prospect of higher rates hurt equities? For now, investors and traders are focused on booming corporate earnings amid a major AI-driven capex cycle. Rate expectations can change drastically month-to-month, but the earnings/AI story ain’t going away.
Continue Reading -->Nvidia: The Big Question Changed
President Trump made nice with China, the S&P 500 hit 7,500+ for the first time ever, and the 10-year yield is rising like a phoenix. So it’s time to look at the 5 things you need to know right now: 1. Nvidia Earnings Are About to Hit. JR Still Loves the Stock. AI kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday, May 20 after the close. The stock is up nearly 40% from the March lows, and expectations look higher. Earnings estimates have been rising and AI capex spending by hyperscalers like Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) just keeps going up. A couple of years ago, a common question was “how long can these companies keep spending more money?” Now it feels like there’s no limit. JR Romero, who recently launched the new Premarket Pit VTF®, told us again why he thinks Nvidia is going to $258: You can learn about JR’s other services, including Sultans of Swing Trading, in this new video. 2. The Fed Is a Mystery Machine Inflation remains stubbornly high, judging by this week’s CPI and PPI report, making it hard for the Fed to cut rates. And thanks to the Iran war, oil looks mighty strong: The market is now pricing in a 48.7% chance of a single 25 bps rate cut this year, and a mere 0.4% chance of 50 bps in cuts. That’s according to the CME’s FedWatch tool: Meanwhile, the Fed is about to undergo a major transition when Jerome Powell passes the ball to Kevin Warsh, who is calling for a regime change at the FOMC. And if Warsh doesn’t play ball with President Trump on rate cuts, that could set the stage for another White House vs. Fed rivalry, raising fresh concerns about the independence of the FOMC. 3. Robinhood May Be the Best Crypto Play If you’re bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum (I have no opinion myself), take a look at Robinhood. The stock is down -32% this year, drastically underperforming peers like Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and Coinbase (COIN). Why? Because Robinhood’s crypto revenue fell off a cliff. Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers has been the industry dominator, riding strength in equity markets and announcing new initiatives like its new Prediction-Market Platform. (note: IBKR is one of my biggest personal holdings and I have zero plans of selling) So if you believe in a crypto comeback, Robinhood may be an interesting way to play. Because the market would price in a rapid rebound in the company’s crypto revenues. 4. Earnings Season Has Been a Monster 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings and the numbers are fantastic, according to FactSet data. -Q1 EPS growth is trending to 27.7% vs. 13.1% expected back on March 31 -10 of 11 sectors have beaten expectations -84% of names beat EPS estimates well above historical norms However, there is one dark side. The market is punishing misses more than it is rewarding beats. The average return after an earnings miss is a -4.9% decline. Look at the right side of the chart. The average return after a beat is just +1.1%. So while the numbers are amazing overall, if you pick a bad name, you’re getting spanked hard. And interestingly this amazing earnings season came with relative high expectations because of rising analyst estimates, and the Iran war spiking oil prices. 5. Investors Are NOT Bulled Up The lastest AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 38.3% of investors are bullish. This is the 3rd straight week of neutral-ish sentiment despite equities making a string of new highs. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 65 showing modest greed. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio is hovering around 0.50. That means options traders are optimistic, but not overly so. The overall theme here is that market participants are cautiously optimistic. They are not falling over themselves to declare this the best market ever, even after a big rally from the March lows.
Continue Reading -->The Apple & SanDisk Takeover
What a week. I blinked, and the QQQ’s are now up nearly 15% year-to-date. Let’s get into the fun stuff starting with two of the most dominant forces in tech stocks: 1. Apple Is Winning Big in AI Wedbush’s Dan Ives just raised his Apple (AAPL) target price to $400, saying “we estimate roughly 20% of the world’s population will access AI through an Apple device over the coming years.” And presumably, AI will be a major topic at the June WWDC conference. Now, have I been reading Dan Ives? Or has Dan Ives been reading me? I’ve been saying for months that you can put any AI app on your iPhone or iPad or Mac or whatever. And I’ve never met a real live human being even considering switching to Android because of some alleged AI advantage. Plus, Apple has a massive Mac Mini shortage because they are selling like crazy to users of local AI models like OpenClaw. So Apple is still operating at genius level in AI. They are not blowing all their cash flow building expensive data centers and LLM models. And they get to ride the wave through their superior hardware devices and app store. 2. SanDisk Broke My Heart I’ve held onto all my Apple shares, but sold my SanDisk (SNDK) like a fool about a month ago. There is nothing worse than selling a stock and watching it double in a couple of weeks. I should have listened to JR Romero on this one. SanDisk is the #1 stock in the S&P 500 with a 532% gain. Intel (INTC) is #2 at +240%. This continues the theme of 1990’s tech darlings dominating the market in 2026: Even Ciena (CIEN) and Dell (DELL) are in there! The funny thing is, SanDisk might still be cheap! Even after this wild run, it’s trading at 9.5X forward earnings! This is because earnings estimates have risen so fast. There is still a major flash memory shortage, so SanDisk gets to charge whatever it wants. I had a funny feeling that Sandisk and the rest of the storage/memory complex (SNDK, STX, MU, WDC, etc) would top out around the launch of the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM). DRAM’s top holdings include SK Hynix, Micron (MU), Samsung, Kioxia Holdings, and SanDisk: But I was wrong. DRAM has almost doubled since its April 2 launch: Shows how valuable my instincts are… 3. Earnings Season Has Been Unbelievable Q1 earnings season was a blockbuster. According to FactSet, 84% of reporting S&P 500 companies beat EPS estimates, easily beating long-term averages. And total earnings have been 18.2% above estimates, more than double the 10-year average of 7.1%. So as of now, with 89% of companies having reported, earnings growth is trending at 27.7%, the highest since Q1 2021. That’s more than double the 13.1% expected on March 31. Some of the bigger earnings winners include Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), SanDisk (SNDK), GE Vernova (GEV), and Intel (INTC). 4. SpaceX Is Here, Sort of Traders are hot for the SpaceX IPO. They’re showing it by bidding up fellow Elon Musk brainchild Tesla (TSLA), plus space exploration names like Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR). Tesla is up 25% over the past month, with any other space names surging as well: And now the rumor mills are active, with some folks believing that SpaceX and Tesla will merge. (Note: XAiI is now part of SpaceX, and the entity is called SpaceXAI, but I’m calling it SpaceX here because that’s what most people say. In other Tesla news, the company is recalling its lower-priced Cybertruck. Because the wheels might fall off. But hey, at least the stock’s looking secure. 5. Sentiment Stagnates Markets are hitting record highs, but sentiment is not. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.3% of investors are bullish, basically unchanged from last week. This is inline with the long-term average of 37.5%. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 68. Yes, that counts as greed, but it’s nothing dramatic. So investors are not all-in on this market. As we said last week, this type of sentiment reading is great for the market because it implies there is money on the sidelines. Markets often (but not always) top on euphoric sentiment. We’re not even close to that.
Continue Reading -->Apple: Super Intelligent on AI
Stocks raged higher this week, driven by huge earnings beats from tech giants. So let’s get into this week’s big stories: 1. Put Some Respect on Apple’s Name For a while, it was hard to escape stories about Apple (AAPL) supposedly falling behind because it wasn’t doing enough in AI. Yet with Thursday’s earnings report, we learned that iPhone and Mac demand is still booming. Even without the company ramming AI features down our throats. Remember, as anyone with a semi-functioning brain knows, you can run AI apps on Apple’s fantastic hardware. Like Mac Minis, which are hugely popular for running local AI agents like OpenClaw. I’ve never met a single human being that stopping using an iPhone or Mac because of a lack of AI functionality. As an Apple shareholder, I hope new CEO John Ternus stays the course by focusing on great products. And partner with companies like Alphabet (GOOGL), OpenAI, and Anthropic where it makes sense. 2. SanDisk Flashed Before My Eyes SanDisk (SNDK) reported another beyond shocking earnings beat on Thursday, and the stock is now up 363% year-to-date. That makes it the top stock in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 by a country mile. Intel (INTC) is #2 with a 166% gain. AI data centers are sucking up flash memory way faster than it can be made, so prices are up exponentially. I have a 2-terabyte SanDisk SSD drive I got in 2023 for $180. Storage/memory prices are “supposed” go to down over time. But a similar new one would cost me $320. Of course, I ignored JR Romero’s brilliance on this stock and sold it in April. So when the results flashed across my screen, I felt a little sick inside. I have been following markets for decades and I’ve never seen earnings beats this big: And before you ask, Nvidia (NVDA) isn’t even close, at least during its AI era. Nvidia’s biggest EPS beat in the past few years was Q2 of 2024, when it beat by 29%. SanDisk just beat by 60%. Crazy stuff. 3) The Semiconductor Chart That Guarantees FOMO Stanley Druckenmiller once said “Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket very carefully.” Now look at the semiconductor basket: Over the past 10 years, SMH has compounded at 36% per year, thanks to huge gains in stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Taiwan Semi (TSM), and AMD (AMD). SMH has outperformed SPY by over 6-fold, and was kicking butt even before the AI spending boom. And note: SMH is up 42% this year even though SanDisk is not in the ETF! By the way, do you know what sector is up even more than SMH? 4. Oil Service Is the True 2026 King The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is now up 56% this year: As you probably know, this is thanks to the massive spike in oil prices following the invasion of Iran. And before that, the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Higher oil prices mean more potential oil projects get the green light. Plus, the greater the US’ influence on the world’s energy infrastructure, the more business there is for oil service companies. Just a few days ago, Reuters reported that oilfield service companies are dusting off equipment that was laying dormant in Venezuela. 5. Sentiment Is Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.1% of investors are bullish. This is smack-in-the-middle neutral, and a decline from last week’s bullish 46.0% reading. Meanwhile, in the options market, traders are leaning optimistic. The CBOE equity put/call ratio has been around 0.50 this week, signaling modest demand for put options. This is healthy to see. Equity markets roared back to life in April with 10%+ gains. But market participants are not going all-in. That means there’s still cash on the sidelines.
Continue Reading -->SanDisk: New Price Target Unleashed
We survived a crazy week in the market, and we’ve got another one coming up! Now let’s jump into what you really want to know: 1. Semiconductor Madness Is On, and JR Has a New SNDK Price Target This market is all about semiconductors. The SMH ETF is up over 30% in April, led by monsters like: Astera Labs (ALAB): +95% Intel (INTC): +83% AMD (AMD): +70% Marvell Technology (MRVL): +65% On Semiconductor (ON): +59% And SanDisk (SNDK), which is not in the SMH ETF, is up 56% to finally get past the $1,000 mark. Our own JR Romero predicted this in February: Now, JR sees SanDisk going to $1,298. (we recorded a video this afternoon, but due to an error by yours truly, it was erased) SMH’s RSI is now at 84+, so it looks overheated. But who wants to step in front of a freight train, especially ahead of a week where multiple tech giants may announce even more increases in capex spending. The fundamentals support the semis’ huge move. According to FactSet, Semiconductor revenues are expected to grow by a whopping 51% this quarter. And earnings are expected to grow 98%. Speaking of earnings… 2. Earnings Season Has Been Excellent According to FactSet, 28% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, and things are looking good. 84% of reporting companies beat earnings forecasts, and 81% beat on revenues. Both are above historical norms. Analysts expected 13.1% growth at the start of Q1. Now it’s tracking towards 15.1%. That number could push even higher given all the heavy-hitters yet to report like Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA). Plus, while tech is a huge driver of the aggregate numbers, every single S&P sector is reporting higher-than-expected earnings and revenues. For example, we’ve seen monster results from the likes of GE Vernova (GEV), FedEx (FDX), Newmont (NEM), and Baker Hughes (BHI). 3. It’s Time to Buckle Up If you thought this week was wild, buckle up! Because we’re about to get hit by: Rate Decisions from the FOMC, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England Earnings from tech giants Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), SanDisk, and more Additional reports from Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), Robinhood (HOOD), Caterpillar (CAT), and Exxon (XOM) And this doesn’t even include what may happen in the Middle East! Here’s the full calendar: 4. Traders Turned Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 46.0% of investors are bullish for the next 6 months. This comes after 9 straight weeks of bearish readings. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 66 showing modest greed. This is up from just 18 (extreme fear) one month ago. And as of Thursday’s close, the CBOE Equity Put-Call ratio was just 0.51, which means low demand for put options. This doesn’t mean investors and traders are euphoric. But all-time highs did cheer them up. 5. Avis Was One for the Ages, and Animal Spirits Are Here This week saw the end of the greatest short squeeze of 2026. In Avis Budget Group (CAR). Yes, the car rental company. The stock went from $100 to $847 in a month. And then it fell over $600 in two days. Not because the rental car market went wild. It’s because Deutsche Bank discovered that two investors controlled 108% of shares through derivatives layered on top of normal share ownership. Momentum buyers piled in, which attracted more momentum. And more and more and more until there was no one left to buy. Then everyone hit the exit button at once. This looked like a more extreme version of Allbirds (BIRD), which had its own wild short squeeze after announcing a transition from sneakers to “AI compute infrastructure.” I wish I was making that up. But between Avis, Allbirds, and the semis, one thing’s for sure. The animal spirits are alive.
Continue Reading -->Elon Musk Is Rocket Man!
What a week! Stocks hit record highs on hopes for peace in the Middle East, while Elon Musk has earned the title “Rocket Man.” So let’s dig into what you need to know right now: 1. QQQ Hits Lucky 13 What a Friday for tech! QQQ rose for the 13th straight day, with 2026 leaders like Seagate (STX), Western Digital (WDC) and Marvell (MRVL) making new all-time highs. Of course, the question now is “are we overextended?” The RSI on QQQ is now 74+, which has marked near-term tops in the past, like last October: This doesn’t mean we’re destined to crash. But things are overheated just as earnings season is heating up. And speaking of earnings, we have to talk about Tesla (TSLA), which reports Wednesday. 2. Tesla Is the Wildest Wild Card Right Now Tesla(TSLA) has had a brutal move off the lows heading into earnings on Wednesday, April 22. And it’s the wildest of wild cards in the market. Forget the fundamentals because the world is obsessed with SpaceX. And there is a non-zero chance Tesla benefits from the SpaceX IPO. Maybe Tesla gets folded into SpaceX. If Elon Musk even hints at hitching Tesla to SpaceX, Tesla is going to the moon. And based on surveys of the T3 Live audience, retail interest in SpaceX is sky-high. So everything Elon-related is getting bid up. JR Romero explains the situation here: And speaking of space, have you seen this? 3. Elon Musk Is Rocket Man! Space-related stocks have been flying this month, led by BlackSky Technology (BKSY) up 47.8% and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) up 46%. Interestingly, all these names aside from Rocket Lab (RKLB) are heavily shorted: This has created additional “rocket fuel” on top of anticipation for the SpaceX IPO. So I am declaring Elon Musk “Rocket Man.” Sorry Kim Jong Un. And since we’re looking at high-flying stuff.. 4. The Russell 2000 Is Dominating IWM is now up 12% year-to-date, crushing SPY and QQQ: And short squeezes look to be a big driver of the recent small-cap surge. We screened for the best-performing Russell 2000 stocks in April. As you can see, plenty have short interest over 10%: Like Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), which is up 118.6% this month on 13.0% short interest. And AMC (AMC), which popped over 93% with 15% short interest. 5. Record Highs, “Meh” Sentiment The S&P 500 hit a new record high at 7147 this afternoon. But is the crowd overjoyed? Nope. Sentiment remains “meh.” The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 31.7% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months. This is the 9th straight week of below-average bullishness. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed index climbed out of the cellar and is now 61. This means mild Greed. So overall, traders remains cautious considering equities’ shocking momentum. This is good news because tops are often (not not always) marked by overly bullish sentiment. We’re not even close to that. So the technicals look extended, sentiment is stuck in the middle. Quite the puzzle we have here.
Continue Reading -->Headlines Still Rule This Market
We survived another week in this wild market. So here are the 5 things you need to know. Headlines – and Oil – Still Rule As Iran and the U.S. reached a two-week ceasefire deal this week… stocks went flying and oil tumbled. But the good times may have been short lived as concerns about the fragility of the deal came back into the market. Iran had reportedly agreed to allow safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz but shipping companies said that wasn’t happening. President Trump warned Iran to “stop now” if it was charging tankers to pass through the Strait and ramped up his aggressive tone in a Truth Social post on Friday: Despite the uncertainty, oil prices ended the week under $100, down nearly 20% from the recent high Stocks ended the week with a down day after 4 straight sessions higher, with the S&P 500 up over 3% on the week: Now we see what happens over the weekend before Monday’s open… every day is a risk of a new headline to break things one way or the other. Consumers Are Feeling Pain The University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low this month as fears mount about rising energy prices and the impact of the Iran war. The headline index dropped to 47.6 on Friday, down 10.7% from March. It’s the lowest reading on record – even including COVID-era surveys. That drop coincided with a sharp rise in inflation expectations. Consumers now see inflation rising 4.8% over the next year, a full 1% higher than March expectations and the highest reading since August 2025. Most of the interviews for this survey were conducted before the April 7 ceasefire agreement. So we’ll have to watch the release of the final survey for April later this month. Survey director Joanne Hsu said, “Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated.” Earnings On Deck It feels like Q4 earnings season just finally ended… and now we are ramping up for Q1 results. The action kicks off with the big banks next week, with Netflix (NFLX) being the first big tech company to report. Here are the highlights: Monday AM: Goldman Sachs (GS) Tuesday AM: JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Wednesday AM: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS) Thursday AM: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), PepsiCo (PEP), Charles Schwab (SCHW) Thursday PM: Netflix (NFLX) Here’s the full calendar for the week, it’s pretty quiet besides the Producer Price Index release on Tuesday: If you want to learn a winning strategy for earnings season, rev up your Earnings Engine with Sami Abusaad! Traders Get More Bullish The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.7% of investors are bullish. That’s up over 2% from last week, but the 8th straight week of below-average bullishness, though it’s not an extreme reading. Just 43% of investors are bearish, down sharply from 51.4% last week. While 21.3% are neutral. These numbers are not shocking considering the tricky environment. And, over in the options market, things still look pretty neutral. The CBOE equity put-call ratio has hovered between 0.48 and 0.72 this week. So the crowd is still pretty cautious. Hard to pick a direction when you don’t know what headline might drop at any moment. Burry Still Bearish After Trump’s PLTR Pump Palantir (PLTR) was in focus on Friday after President Trump praised the company in a Truth Social post: After Trump’s endorsement of the stock, PLTR bottomed at $122.68 at 10:11am ET before rallying to a high of $129.20 at 11:28am ET. But “Big Short” investor Michael Burry is still bearish the name. In a Substack post, Burry wrote, “I now own the June 17 2027 Strike Price 50 Puts and the December 19, 2026 Strike Price 100 Puts. I am not selling these today.” Even with Friday’s pop, PLTR was on track for a roughly 13% weekly drop, bringing the stock’s 2026 losses to about 28%. Burry says the software firm is “wildly overvalued” after peaking near $200 last year. Meantime, the broader software sector has been hit hard this year with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) down nearly 30% YTD. This earnings season will be key for software stocks to relieve market fears about AI disruptions to their business.
Continue Reading -->Oil vs. Stocks: Who’s Lying?
We survived another week in this topsy-turvy market. These are the 5 things you need to know. The Oil vs. Stocks Conundrum President Trump’s Iran-focused primetime address on Wednesday wasn’t exactly a roaring success thanks to mixed signals. He said the operation is “nearing completion.” But he also said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next 2-3 weeks. We could be arguing semantics here. Maybe 2-3 weeks qualifies as getting close to the end. But it appears that equities are looking past the turmoil. SPY is now down just 6.3% from all-time highs even though oil just did this: And even though rate cuts might be off the table this year. This is where it gets tricky. Stocks are pricing in resolution on Iran. Oil is doing the opposite. Which side is right? Which one is lying? This is the toughest question in the market right now. My guess is that stocks are right about oil. What’s yours? We’ve Got Gas, and It’s Very Expensive Traders are now pricing in a 25% chance of lower rates this year, up from just 1% last week. Still, we get NFP on Friday April 3, followed by CPI, GDP, and the Core PCE Price Index next week. So God only knows where this number will be by next Friday. But the big topic on consumers’ minds is the price of gasoline, which has skyrocketed: Aside from the economic fallout, high gas prices could impact the midterm elections later this year. And there’s no telling when we get relief, because Iran is digging in its heels, likely because they know that high energy prices hurt President Trump. There’s Been a Massive Invasion of Privacy JR Romero has been warning that Private Credit is a disaster waiting to happen. And yesterday, Blue Owl (OWL) said it was facing a huge wave of redemption requests for its funds. Private Credit funds are under pressure because investors are worried about credit quality and rising rates. Many funds have high exposure to speculative software companies that may be under threat from AI. Interestingly, Private Equity stocks have also been under pressure for the same reasons. And of course, some Private Equity companies like Blackstone (BX) and KKR (KKR) run Private Credit Funds. Look at this list of Private Credit Companies/Funds, and Private Equity Companies: They are down an average of 38.8% from their 52-week highs. Meanwhile, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is down just -12.2% Traders Are Not Fearful The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.6% of investors are bullish. This is up slightly from last week, but the 7th straight week of below-average bullishness, though it’s not an extreme reading. And 51.4% of investors are bearish, which is well above the long-term average of 31.0%. These numbers are not shocking considering the tricky environment. Meanwhile, over in the options market, things remain neutral. The CBOE equity put-call ratio has hovered between 0.56 and 0.66 this week, which doesn’t tell us much either way. So we can say the crowd is cautious. But not overly fearful, even with a lack of resolution in the Middle East. Could an OpenAI IPO Bomb? Coming into 2026, traders were excited about three possible IPOs this year: SpaceX Anthropic (maker of Claude) OpenAI (maker of ChatGPT) OpenAI might be off the table. Bloomberg reported that demand for OpenAI shares on secondary markets (where shares in private companies are bought and sold) has collapsed. If you follow the AI ecosystem, you know that Anthropic is dominating the war for hearts and minds. I can’t open Twitter or LinkedIn without reading 13,000 new tales of how Claude Cowork is changing lives. And right or wrong, now everyone’s treating ChatGPT like yesterday’s news. And the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is retooling the company to focus on coding and business users, which is Claude’s strength. OpenAI is now generating $2 billion in revenue per month, and just raised $122 billion in new capital. But could a prospective OpenAI IPO bomb because Anthropic is the belle of the ball? I’m guessing yes. And then OpenAI could be the buy of a lifetime.
Continue Reading -->I’m Afraid of SpaceX
What a week. War is raging. The headlines won’t stop. Crude oil is raging higher. And inflation is on everyone’s mind. So let’s go through the 5 things you need to know. 1. I’m Afraid of SpaceX Word on the street is that Elon Musk’s SpaceX is about to raise up to $75 billion in an IPO that would value the company at up to $1.75 trillion. And I’m afraid. SEC data shows that market tops coincide with strong IPO years like 2000, 2007, 2014, and 2021. So if we get big IPOs this year from SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks, that could be a sign of a cyclical top. Many investors are frustrated that high-growth companies are staying private longer and longer. Maybe that’s a good thing. And with rates possibly on the upswing and speculative stocks getting slammed, maybe the IPO window for these hot companies will stay closed anyway. 2. Hard Times Are Here March has been a miserable month for stocks unless you’ve been long energy. (more on this below) As you’d expect, sentiment has taken a hit. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 32.1% of investors are bullish. This is the 6th straight week of below-average bullishness, though it’s not an extreme reading. And 49.8% of investors are bearish, which is well above the long-term average of 31.0%. These numbers are not shocking considering the tricky environment. Meanwhile, over in the options market, things are pretty neutral. The CBOE equity put-call ratio has been hovering between 0.56 and 0.63 this week, which doesn’t tell us much either way. If we get a spike to 0.9 or higher on Friday, maybe that’s a sign we’re oversold. So we can say the crowd is somewhat bearish. Nothing that can give us a buy signal. One big reason markets are in a funk is the sudden fear of rate hikes due to high inflation. That’s why… 3. The Hawks Are Flying We looked at FOMC rate policy expectations using the CME’s FedWatch Tool. The market is now pricing in: 2.9% chance of one 25 bps rate cut 69.5% chance of no change 24.5% chance of a 25 bps rate hike this year 3.0% chance of 50 bps in hikes 0.2% chance of 75 bps in hikes That’s a 27.7% implied probability of rates going up this year. And a 2.9% chance of a single rate cut. If we wind back the lock just one month, traders were pricing in a 0% chance of higher rates, and a 96.1% chance of cuts. You can thank oil for this. Speaking of oil… 4. Energy Is the Star Every equity sector has been red in March, with one exception: energy. Not a shock with oil up so much. SPY is down nearly 7%, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is +13% and the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up +5%. And if you look at the top SPX/SPY stocks for the month, they are virtually all in energy: And you know what’s not on the list? 5. Mag 7 Really Is the Lag 7 The Mag 7 used to place to be, but no more. All 7 are underperforming SPY/SPX this year, with Microsoft (MSFT) bringing up the rear, down nearly 26%: Many of these names are starting to look like value stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) is trading at 20 times forward earnings, even though it’s expected to grow earnings by 74% this year. If this was 1984, Peter Lynch would be drooling. But the market’s undergone a sea change. Three years ago, everyone was focused on the promise of AI. Now, the market’s more worried about the sustainability of capex spending growth amid a lack of clear real-world benefits. According to a study from the National Bureau of Economic Research, 90% of companies said AI has had no impact on employment or productivity. Of course, we’re still in the early innings. And anecdotally, I’ve seen plenty of people in small companies make amazing use of AI. I wouldn’t want to live without it myself.
Continue Reading -->Epic Bear Invasion Is Here
What a week. Inflation’s still a thing, Micron dropped another earnings bomb, and Chuck Norris is hanging with Bruce Lee in heaven. Watch this clip with respect because they don’t make ’em like this anymore: Now let’s go through the 5 things you need to know. The Bears Are Here The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 30.4% of investors are bullish. This is the 7th straight weekly decline, and the lowest bullish reading since September 11, 2025. And 52.0% of investors are bearish. This is the highest bearish reading since May 1, 2025. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 17, signifying extreme fear. Finally, the CBOE equity put-call ratio hit 0.90 Wednesday. This is a fairly high reading and close to the 1ish level typically seen at near-term bottoms. But has enough negativity seeped into the market to form a short-term bottom? That is the #1 question we need to ask ourselves. Because if we get good news on Iran over the weekend, a lot of bears may throw money at the market. March… What a Stinker March has been a real mess. Our ETF monitor shows that everything is red for March, aside from Ethereum (ETHE), Bitcoin (IBIT), and Energy (XLE): And many of the strongest sectors from early 2026 (like silver, gold, and uranium) got spanked. The SPY is down a not-so-disastrous -5.6%, but the average individual name in the index is down -7.2%. Plus, there have been very few individual winners in March, as you might expect from the lousy ETF numbers. Just 65 SPY names are positive. And to catch them, you had to be long energy, or had the guts to buy oversold software names like Datadog (DDOG), Intuit (INTU), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW). Otherwise, you got hit hard. The Fed Is a Total Mystery Following this week’s FOMC meeting, hot PPI report, rising rates, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the market has flip flopped on rate expectations. 1 week ago, the market was pricing in a 60.9% chance of lower rates this year. Now it’s pricing in: 5.4% chance of one 25 bps cut 57.9% of rates staying the same 30% chance of one 25 bps hike 6.0% chance of 50 bps in hikes 0.6% chance of 75 bps in hikes So we went from pricing in a 60.9% chance of lower rates to 5.4%. Housing stocks sniffed this out because they’ve been in a nasty downtrend for the past 6 weeks: JR Romero Nailed Super Micro (SMCI) In August 2024, JR Romero said he considered Super Micro (SMCI) to be the “Bernie Madoff of tech.” Today, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York charged three men affiliated with Super Micro with conspiring to smuggle Nvidia (NVDA) AI chips to China in violation of U.S. law. One of those men was Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw. Doesn’t get much worse than that. So JR was right. This company can not be trusted. But if we look at the news another way… is this not the biggest endorsement of Nvidia AI chips ever? Based on an SEC filing, Liaw owns over 15 million SMCI shares, which were valued at over $450 million as of yesterday’s close. Smuggling these chips is so lucrative that a guy this rich was willing to risk his company’s future. ALLEGEDLY. But you know who’s not crying today? Dell (DELL) longs: Because the market assumes some of Super Micro’s $40+ billion in annual sales will get shifted to Dell. And you figure Nvidia just might hold back on chip allocations to Super Micro. The 4 Horsemen of the AI-pocalypse Are Still Dominating On January 30, I identified these memory/storage leaders as the 4 Horsemen: SanDisk (SNDK) Seagate (STX) Western Digital (WDC) Micron (MU) And they’re still crushing it this year. And you know a group is how when the worst name (Micron) is up a crazy 47.3%! David Prince of T3’s Inner Circle shared his thoughts on this white-hot set of names: What does the $MU report mean for $SNDK $WDC and other peers?@epictrades1 says the “business is on fire” but that doesn’t mean the stocks will go up forever… Learn more from DP: https://t.co/VExJsdNZtf pic.twitter.com/sgHoxLykn4 — T3 Live (@t3live) March 19, 2026 The story here is simple. AI data centers can’t get enough memory and storage. These companies could probably double capacity and sell it out in minutes. If you want to see how this is playing out on the ground, I bought a SanDisk 2TB SSD drive for about $200 3 years ago. Today, they’re going for $349: This is insane.
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